U.S. Morning Call for Thursday, March 4, 2010 Overnight Developments
- Global stocks are mostly lower with the European DJ Stoxx 50 Index down -0.04% and March S&Ps down -0.20 points. The dollar is stronger and most commodities are weaker, while Treasuries are little changed. As expected the BOE held its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and kept its asset purchase plan at 200 billion pounds. The markets now await the ECB's interest rate decision later this morning and whether the central bank will decide to pare back any of its stimulus measures pt in place to help revive growth. Maersk, the owner of the world's largest container shipping line, fell over 4% after it reported a full-year net loss for 2009 of 7.04 billion kroner ($1.29 billion), larger than analysts' estimates for a 5.5 billion kroner loss and its first full-year loss since WWII. Amec Plc slumped 6.6% after the UK engineering company said the business environment "remains challenging" and Anheuser-Busch InBev NV dropped 3.3% after the world's largest br ewer reported weaker-than-expected profit and said earnings growth will slow. On the positive side, Ahold climbed 4.1% after raising its dividend by 28% and saying it plans to buy back 500 million euros in stock and Vinci rose 2.8% after the world's biggest builder reported 2009 profit that beat analysts' estimates and said sales may rise this year, helped by acquisitions.
- The Asian markets today closed mostly lower with Japan down -1.05%, Hong Kong -1.44%, China -2.53%, Taiwam -0.78%, Australia +0.31%, Singapore -0.51%, South Korea -0.21%, India -0.17%. Japan's stocks closed lower after it was reported that Japanese businesses cut Q4 capital spending excluding software -18.5% y/y, the 11th consecutive quarterly decline, and signals that even a pick-up in exports remains insufficient to prompt investment that would spur the recovery. The data also suggest that Q4 Japan GDP may be revised lower and that a stronger yen is forcing exporters to invest overseas rather than at home, while deflation is discouraging spending by domestic service companies. Mitsubishi Motors slumped 11% after the carmaker and PSA Peugeot Citroen said they wouldn't form an alliance. Chinese stocks fell on concern China the PBOC will soon raise borrowing costs and curb lending to cool the economy after comments from Premier Wen Jiabao who said that China's growth path is "unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable." China's Industrial Bank closed down 2.4% and led bank stocks lower after it said that new loan growth will be cut in half this year as the government orders lenders to curb borrowing.
Sponsor Message:
IN ONE HOUR OF TRADING YOU CAN MAKE MORE MONEY THAN
MOST PEOPLE DO SLAVING AT A DEAD END JOB ALL WEEK LONG...
I didn't believe it either until I saw the proof with my own eyes...
Click here for the full report
Genius chess player with a certified I.Q. of 157 unveils his 'sneaky'
(and 100% legal) trading system which can...
...secure net profits up to $1250...not in days or weeks...but just 59
minutes or less. Click here for the full report
Overnight U.S. Stock News
- March S&Ps this morning are trading down -0.20 points. The US stock market yesterday raced up to its high during mid-morning and then shed its gains and gyrated on both sides of unchanged the rest of the day, finally settling mixed (Dow Jones -0.09%, S&P 500 +0.04%, Nasdaq Composite +0.00%). The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones pushed up to 1-1/4 month highs. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) the as expected 20,000 job loss in the Feb ADP employment change, the fewest job cuts in that series in two years and a sign that the labor market may be on the mend, (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the Feb ISM non-manufacturing index which expanded at its fastest pace in 2-1/3 years (+2.5 to 53.0 versus expectations of +0.5 to 51.0), (3) comments from Atlanta Fed President Lockhart who reiterated his support for the Fed to keep interest rates near zero for an "extended period," saying that the economic recovery will likely be modest and in flation will remain subdued, (4) the prediction from the chief economist at JPMorgan Chase that the US economy will benefit from "meaningful job growth in the private sector" over the next few months as companies have begun to increase the hours in the workweek, a sign of increased labor demand, (5) the prediction from the vice chairman of Blackrock that companies that are grappling with disappointing economic growth will use takeovers this year to improve their earnings prospects and that the increased M&A activity will "prop up" equity prices, and (6) the Fed's Beige book that stated the US economy improved in 9 of the 12 regional Fed bank districts.
- Bearish factors for stocks included (1) comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said that the US unemployment rate may rise back above 10% as workers return to the labor force and that interest rates should remain low until the economy picks up, which won't happen "for some time," (2) weakness in health-care companies after President Obama urged lawmakers to vote on legislation to overhaul the industry, (3) a drop in bank stocks after President Obama was said to have planned to send to Congress the so-called "Volcker Rule" as soon this week that will impose limits on banks' size and proprietary trading, and (4) the Fed's Beige book that stated labor markets across the US remained "soft" and that commercial real estate and loan demand remained weak.
- Fifth Third Bank (FITB) fell 3.5% in pre-market trading after Sanford C. Berstein cut its recommendation on the stock to "market perform" from "outperform," saying "strong relative performance has driven the stock through tangible book value."
- Disney (DIS) climbed 1.3% in pre-market trading after Bank of America Merrill raised its recommendation on the stock to "buy" from "neutral," citing releases Alice in Wonderland and Toy Story 3.
Today's Market Focus
- June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up +2.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday traded weaker most of the day but clawed their way back into the close to finally settle up +0.5 ticks at 117-135. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said that the US unemployment rate may rise back above 10% as workers return to the labor force and that interest rates should remain low until the economy picks up, which won't happen "for some time," (2) comments from Atlanta Fed President Lockhart who reiterated his support for the Fed to keep interest rates near zero for an "extended period," saying that the economic recovery will likely be modest and inflation will remain subdued, and (3) the Fed's Beige report that said labor markets across the US remained "soft" and that commercial real estate and loan demand remained weak. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in the Feb I SM non-manufacturing index which expanded at its fastest pace in 2-1/3 years (+2.5 to 53.0 versus expectations of +0.5 to 51.0), and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the stock market rallied to a 1-1/4 month high, and (3) the surge in Greek government bonds to a 3-week high after the Greece's Prime Minister announced an additional $6.6 billion in deficit cuts to reign in its bloated deficit, which temporarily eased concerns about Greece's fiscal crisis.
- The dollar index this morning is little changed with the dollar/yen -0.12 yen and the euro/dollar -0.16 cents. The dollar index yesterday slipped to a 2-week low and finished the day on its low. Bearish factors yesterday included (1) strength in the euro after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou announced an additional 4.8 billion euros ($6.6 billion) of deficit cuts, which increased confidence that Greece can rein in the European Union's biggest budget gap, and (2) comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said that US interest rates should remain low until the economy picks up, which won't happen "for some time." Bullish factors included (1) the prediction from Lloyds Banking Group Plc that the euro may not sustain the gains it made against the dollar after Greece announced additional spending cuts, as investors will take advantage of a rise in the currency to reset short positions in the euro, and (2) the expansion of the US service sector in Feb to its h ighest level in 2-1/3 years, which may prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected and strengthen the dollar's interest rate differentials.
- April crude oil prices this morning are up +15 cents and Apr gasoline is -0.29 of a cent. Apr crude oil yesterday spiked lower mid-morning but then rallied the rest of the day and settled up +$1.19 per barrel. Apr gasoline closed up +5.10 cents per gallon. Apr crude oil climbed to a 1-1/2 month high and Apr gasoline posted a 1-1/3 year nearest-futures high. Bullish factors included (1) the drop in the dollar index to a 2-week low, (2) an increase in demand after total US fuel demand over the past four weeks rose +3% y/y to 19.3 million bpd, (3) the prediction from China Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals that China's oil imports this year will rise 5% to 214 million tons, up from a record 203.8 million tons last year as the government's $586 billion stimulus spending spurs demand, (4) renewed attacks by militants on oil installations in Nigeria, which threatens exports from Africa's largest crude oil producer, and (5) the larger-than-expected increase in the Feb ISM non-m anufacturing index which expanded at its highest level in 2-1/3 years and indicates increased energy consumption and demand. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected build in weekly crude oil inventories which rose to their highest level since Aug (+4.03 million bbl to 341.6 million bbl versus expectations of a +1.28 million bbl increase), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly gasoline inventories (+773,000 bbl versus expectations of +300,000 bbl), and (3) the unexpected jump in the refinery capacity rate (+0.7 to 81.9% versus expectations of unchanged at 81.2%) which bodes well for further increases in gasoline and distillate stockpiles in the weeks ahead.
